Politics and Culture

Hermano blog Babalu and the now obsoletely-named Kill Castro are reporting that Fidel Castro, the record-breaking dictator of Cuba, is dead.

From Kill Castro:

Let's update at the first line, for a change:
Apparently, there are indications in Cuba about an imminent announcement.
It can be a government launched rumor, but it can be true, too.
Let's see what happens from now to the end of the day!

We've been getting some reports from both Havana and Oriente about a "estado de alerta" in which the "organizaciones politicas y de masas" are being put since midweek. We are under the impression, even though we haven't been able to talk to anybody who has actually seen the body, that the end of the race for El Barba Cucaracha is really close, if he didn't cross the finish line into Hell already.
We advise the Cuban people to be cautious, since the regime could be doing a dry run -creating false expectations- to be able to bag people at this time. Again, we have been told that when the time comes the announcement will be read "by surprise" in the radio, and at the same time the workers will be ordered onto buses or trucks to go to "the revolution square" for the viewing of a portrait and to sign a condolence book. That cannot be done during a weekend, obviously.
We will update this post as long as we have more information, but the announcement will have to wait till the official press release it out.
A rey muerto, raul puesto....
Go to this old post and download the tune....

First thoughts:

One certainly can't feel the joyful catharsis of justice having been done a la Pinochet or Mussolini. Castro lived a full life with all the trappings afforded a supreme ruler (wealth, women, sycophants, monuments) along with a sense of personal prestige given to him by anti-Americans around the world and at Berkeley.

Maybe instead of just celebrating, we (not just Cubans, of course) can take some time and reflect:

Follow up:

Who's to blame?:

If we must, let's blame the Castro nightmare on the foreign policy failures of American presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy (Eisenhower for supporting Castro and Kennedy for a flaccid initial response once his intentions were known), the world community mentioned above who legitimized him and propped him up, and, if not most- not quite least of all the Cuban people, who before they knew it were in the grips of a Stalinist (not as bad, admittedly-let's keep some perspective), totalitarian state. I say "least of all" because although many Cubans did support the dismantling of their relatively prosperous state, many others fought for years in the Sierra Maestra mountains against Castro's real, Soviet-trained army, unlike Castro who mostly fought a newspaper war (the details of Castro can be read on this post. It has a link to a nice, short biography). Millions of Cubans left as well.

How much damage did Castro do to Cuba?

Unlike some of my Cuban brothers and sisters, I'm not as optimistic that Cuba will soon take its place alongside Chile and Costa Rica as a decent Latin-American country. By design and unintentionally, Communism has upset the time-testedly successful social order of functioning states: the family, the elite, the deference to tradition, the personal independence, the entrepreneurship, religion. On the other hand, Cubans are well-educated relative to their neighbors (not educated like they're encouraged to think outside of a rigid structure, but they can do math and stuff) so who knows? Champions of freedom, philanthropists (in the full Greek meaning, not just money), and/or haters of Communism can help by favoring policies that give Cubans a chance, if not with direct support. Prayers can't hurt.

Lessons to be learned from Castro:

1. Communism is a loser. Communism failed for the 238th time. That still won't stop people like Michael Moore and Hugo Chavez from keeping up the almost hilariously stupid fight.

2. The United States could have prevented the death of thousands and the virtual imprisonment of millions by succeeding at a policy with deep ethical problems: assassination. Would I have done it? I don't think so- there's the whole meddling in affairs thing; we can't just go off killing world leaders- it would have been much better if Cubans had done it. But, you can't deny that Castro's death would have been a good thing for not only Cubans but modern Venezuelans and Africans in the seventies (it would have been bad for T-shirt vendors, however). Would I have assassinated Hitler (again, I don't equate the two- it's just a hypothetical)? I think so. Maybe it's just a matter of degree, then.

What will happen in Cuba?

The potential scenarios as I see it:

1. Status quo ante (antes que se murio el HP [not the printer company]).

Raul Castro will assume leadership of Cuba and run things the same as his brother which is to say, poorly. Dissidents who desire freedom may surge at the prospect of change, but Raul will move quickly to suppress them. Chances: Very likely. Model: Cuba.

2. Counter-revolution.

People seeking freedom (called worms by Castro) will align with those members of the military sympathetic to their cause and challenge the current government. If the result is a total and violent civil war, the United States will intervene and quickly restore order to Cuba. Broke it-bought-it will come into play and a democracy will replace the dictatorship. Chances: neither likely nor unlikely. If this were to happen, either:

a) Cuba will have an inefficient and/or corrupt democracy. The power vacuum will be filled by a combination of corrupt men and leaders of organized crime. The economy will consist of tourism, illicit sex, drugs, and raw materials, but will not produce a standard of living comparable to that of the first world. Increased emigration will further impoverish the nation. Chances: unlikely. Model: most of Latin-America, Russia.

b) With the help of the United States and Cuban émigrés, Cuba will recover quickly and take its place at the head of Latin American nations both economically and politically. Efficient and honest government will attract foreign investment and a bustling middle-class will emerge. Chances: neither likely nor unlikely. Model: Chile, Costa Rica, Poland.

Communist Moderation:

Raul Castro will implement China-like reforms and allow limited capitalism. Partnerships between Cuba and foreign businesses will increase. Materially, things may get better for Cubans, but freedom will still be very limited. Chances: likely. Models: Venezuela in three years, China, and Vietnam.

Chaos:

Cuba will descend into an ongoing struggle over supremacy with neither side gaining an advantage. Chances: unlikely. Model: Columbia, Iraq.

Strong man:

A new Batista/Samoza type dictatorship will arise. This scenario begins like 1, but the United States refuses to participate. A strong-man, either of the Left or Right, will appear and restore order, but not democracy. Chances: unlikely. Models: Chile-1970s.

This is one post where I would especially enjoy your comments.