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Quality free-PC driven, Oscar predictions
02/25/07
Pretty much how they're chosen anyways, right? I have to do it this way because I didn't see all the movies. Synopsi courtesy of IMDB:
Complete list of the 79th Annual Academy Award nominations announced Tuesday at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in Beverly Hills, Calif.:
1. Best Picture: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."
Little Miss Sunshine:
Olive is a little girl with a dream: winning the Little Miss Sunshine contest. Her family wants her dream to come true, but they are so burdened with their own quirks, neuroses, and problems that they can barely make it through a day without some disaster befalling them. Olive's father Richard is a flop as a motivational speaker, and is barely on speaking terms with her mother. Her uncle Frank, a renowned Proust scholar, has attempted suicide following an unsuccessful romance with a male graduate student. Her brother Dwayne, a fanatical follower of Nietzsche, has taken a vow of silence, which allows him to escape somewhat from the family whose very presence torments him. And Olive's grandfather is a ne'er-do-well with a drug habit, but at least he enthusiastically coaches Olive in her contest talent routine. Circumstances conspire to put the entire family on the road together with the goal of getting Olive to the Little Miss Sunshine contest in far off California. Written by Jim Beaver {jumblejim@prodigy.net}
Prediction: It shows how a non-traditional family can be successful and even fun without resorting to conservative cures. (Imagine a movie where a non-traditional and dysfunctional family gets better starts going to church or something. Yeah, me neither). It has gays (standard Asymmetric disclaimer) and lovable lugs with drug habits (both usually a plus for the Oscars), but I get the sense that these two groups are going out of style. Had it been made in 1996, it may have had a chance.
Departed:
Years ago, a powerful Irish mafia figure placed a small selection of his youngest, brightest men into the Massachusetts Police Academy as cadets. Their purpose is to eventually rise within the prestigious ranks of the city's police department, to serve as the eyes and ears of their boss. While somewhere else, a young cadet was assigned with an equally dangerous task: infiltrate the Irish syndicate headed by the man sending in his own to the Boston Police. Now, one cadet is an up and coming police official with a torn allegiance to his job and to the criminal mastermind that put him there. While the other cadet is the trusted number two of that man, only finding his professional duties are becoming blurred with his current state. But new clues have lead to unfortunate discoveries, when both sides realize they're being watched by the enemy. It's now all just a matter of time before the men assigned to find out whose the infiltrator, could come to a bloody end when someone's identity may be revealed.
OK. I saw this one. Non-political, graphically violent in the Reservoir Dogs/Goodfellas tradition, and plot twisty. I thought it was OK. Martin Scorsese hasn't gotten an Oscar yet, so this one's the winner.
Babel
Richard and Susan (Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett) are a couple from San Diego, California who are vacationing in Morocco while their two children are at home with their Mexican housekeeper, Amelia (Adriana Barraza). A rifle finds its way into the hands of a local herdsman's young sons (Said Tarchani and Boubker Ait El Caid), who recklessly take a shot at a tour bus and hit Susan in the shoulder, causing her severe injury. The distraught Richard calls home to tell Amelia of the situation, who shortly departs for Mexico to attend her son's wedding, with Richard and Susan's children in tow. Disaster thus multiplies, with the situation in Morocco ascribed to terrorists in the media, while Amelia meets with trouble at the Mexican border when she attempts to return to San Diego with Richard and Susan's children. Meanwhile, in Tokyo, a widower (Koji Yakusho) tied to the rifle in question, a complex shift of ownership to which the audience is privy, attempts to deal with the memories of his recently deceased wife and his strained relationship with his deaf teenage daughter (Rinko Kikuchi).
A Politically Correct bacchanalia reminiscent of last year's Crash, this movie would be a shoe-in were it not for Scorsese. It tackles the tough issues with common-sensical (for Hollywood) solutions:
a) Illegal aliens take American kids to Mexico and then can't get back in? If you just let them in, these problems wouldn't exist. Just like if police didn't give out tickets, nobody would be falsely accused of speeding or miss work because of a court date.
b) People shooting each other? If you take away their guns, nobody will have anything to shoot. Wait, if somebody gets caught with a gun, should we punish him? What if he was just holding it for somebody and he's falsely accused? What if he's an illegal immigrant with a gun who's crossing the border, but didn't know guns were illegal and he has to get back to mow a white person's lawn? Well, we'll cross that bridge when we arrive there.
c) Deafness? Be nice to your deaf kids.
d) Terrorism? Terrorism isn't a problem and anybody who tells you so is a fanatic. What's more dangerous is the over-reaction to perceived, but non-existent, terrorism. The solution is to not worry about it. Worry about important things like global warming (see best documentary).
e) Herdsmen are almost always falsely accused as they're rather innocent beings, incapable of deliberate harm.
The Queen
Hollywood likes royalty-especially flawed royalty. It reminds them of themselves, maybe.
Letters From Iwo Jima
I saw this one and thought it was pretty good- a little boring- but OK. It depends if Hollywood sees this as anti-American enough to win. I didn't think it was too anti-American.
2. Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."
Peter O'Toole is old so he might get the "it's his turn" Oscar. On the other hand, a Whitaker win would make him the first overweight black actor to win, a historic moment. This one's down to the wire.
3. Actress: Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."
I think Streep, Dench, and Winslet already won Oscars. Cruz is too young. I think it's Mirren.
4. Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."
I heard Murphy was good. Hounsou sounds kind of exotic, though. Toss-up.
5. Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."
Adrianna Barraza gets the nod here for obvious reasons.
6. Directing: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"; Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"; Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Stephen Frears, "The Queen"; Paul Greengrass, "United 93."
Scorsese's turn.
7. Foreign Language Film: "After the Wedding," Denmark; "Days of Glory (Indigenes)," Algeria; "The Lives of Others," Germany; "Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico; "Water," Canada.
I described Pan's Labyrinth as a lefty Narnia . I think Muslims are "in" this year. I'll go with the Algerian one.
8. Adapted Screenplay: Sacha Baron Cohen and Anthony Hines and Peter Baynham and Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips, "Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"; Alfonso Cuaron and Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus and Hawk Ostby, "Children of Men"; William Monahan, "The Departed"; Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"; Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal."
Children of Men changed a pro-Life Christian book into a nihilistic pro-immigration movie so it has a chance for that good deed alone. I didn't know Borat was based on anything.
9. Original Screenplay: Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"; Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Guillermo del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth"; Peter Morgan, "The Queen."
Whatever. I'll go with Babel.
10. Animated Feature Film: "Cars," "Happy Feet," "Monster House."
Happy Feet scared little kids about Global Warming and had gay penguins. Monster House scared kids, but not about Global Warming and had no gay animals. Cars was too pro-things that Hollywood doesn't care about. I'll go with Happy Feet.
11. Art Direction: "Dreamgirls," "The Good Shepherd," "Pan's Labyrinth," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "The Prestige."
? I'll guess Good Shepherd. It might remind them of of Al Gore.
12. Cinematography: "The Black Dahlia," "Children of Men," "The Illusionist," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Prestige."
I guess whichever one had the camera that moved around the most.
13. Sound Mixing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Dreamgirls," "Flags of Our Fathers," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."
Flags of our Fathers had explosions. Dreamgirls had music. Both are types of sounds. Tough choice. Apocalypto has no chance, obviously.
14. Sound Editing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Flags of Our Fathers," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."
?
15. Original Score: "Babel," Gustavo Santaolalla; "The Good German," Thomas Newman; "Notes on a Scandal," Philip Glass; "Pan's Labyrinth," Javier Navarrete; "The Queen," Alexandre Desplat.
I don't know. Phillip Glass is kind of famous for boring classical-sounding music. I'll go with him.
16. Original Song: "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth," Melissa Etheridge; "Listen" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler and Anne Preven; "Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett; "Our Town" from "Cars," Randy Newman; "Patience" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger and Willie Reale.
I Need to Wake Up- definitely.
17. Costume: "Curse of the Golden Flower," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Dreamgirls," "Marie Antoinette," "The Queen."
Tough choice of queen here. I'm guessing Prada since it mentions fashion in the title. Ladies like ruffly Marie Antoinette costumes, though. Could go either way.
18. Documentary Feature: "Deliver Us From Evil," "An Inconvenient Truth," " Iraq in Fragments," "Jesus Camp," "My Country, My Country."
It's hard. So many anti-American documentaries to choose from. I think Hollywood feels bad for Gore, however, and will award him with the Oscar as a consolation prize for not winning the presidency.
19. Documentary (short subject): "The Blood of Yingzhou District," "Recycled Life," "Rehearsing a Dream," "Two Hands."
I'll go with Yingzhou because it's the most foreign sounding.
20. Film Editing: "Babel," "Blood Diamond," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "United 93."
?
21. Makeup: "Apocalypto," "Click," "Pan's Labyrinth."
You have to admit, modern teenagers don't have anything on ancient Mayans. Why was Pan's makeup good? I'll go with Pan's Labyrinth.
22. Animated Short Film: "The Danish Poet," "Lifted," "The Little Matchgirl," "Maestro," "No Time for Nuts."
No Time for Nuts as a favor to Ellen DeGeneres.
23. Live Action Short Film: "Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)," "Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)," "Helmer & Son," "The Saviour," " West Bank Story."
West Bank Story sounds kind of hip.
24. Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "Poseidon," "Superman Returns."
None of these films were any good. Superman's bullet in the eyeball was funny in a bad way. I'll go with Pirates.
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